In a prior diary, I profiled Cheryl Crist, a peace activist who has launched a primary challenge against pro-war Democrat Brian Baird in Washington's third Congressional District. Since then, Baird continues to be dogged by critics in his district angry at his pro-war vote, and Cheryl Crist is getting traction.
As usual, Emmett at Olympia Time puts his finger on the key question:
I'm just saying, defeating Baird in the primary could end up handing the district over.
Might a purple district like WA-03 go red? I went for the facts on this one. Here's what I found...
First, Brian Baird's constituency is still mad at him.
Lietta Ruger at WashBlog is keeping track of those who continue to die in Iraq, quoting Baird as affirming that continuing American deaths of 2-3 per day (3,973 so far) are justified by the cause in Iraq. Indeed, Baird continues to cling to his support for the surge as reported in The Columbian:
Baird has been criticized by members of his own party as a "pro-surge Democrat" who believes that American forces are making progress and that an immediate pullout could be disastrous.
Eli Sanders, writing in The Stranger's group blog (SLOG), finds Baird's recent endorsement of Obama to be hypocritical:
So why, I asked Baird, is he endorsing a candidate whose views on the defining issue of the time, the Iraq war, are so diametrically opposed to his?
Sanders is right: ending the war in Iraq is THE defining issue of this election, possibly of this generation, and Brian Baird is on the wrong side of history when he replies:
It’s clear my position (on troop withdrawal) is somewhat different from Senator Obama’s right now...I really think it’s a mistake on either side to say that today, given the situation today, I know exactly where the next president should stand when he or she takes office a year from today.
Also, Nothstine at P3 notes Baird's entanglement in defense appropriations earmark scandal, as documented by the Bill Moyers exposé, "Mr. Heath Goes to Washington," and DLAW at WashBlog is beating the drums to replace weak Democrats:
Senator Murray, Norm Dicks, Brian Baird (for darn sure), Pelosi, Hoyer - they all need to know that if they hurt the party and dilute the winning message, they can be replaced.
In sum, when it comes to the war, Brian Baird's position is not changing, and the heat from his constituents is not abating.
Second, Cheryl Crist is getting traction.
Behind Cheryl's friendly face and soft-southern accent lies the hard determination that comes from years of community activism. People may be drawn to Cheryl because of her positive outlook, but they'll vote for her because she is committed to changing US policy in several key areas.
Here is how Mollie at Portland Independent Media Center describes Crist:
Cheryl Crist, a long-time peace activist and Olympia resident...is one of many Democrats who are running against in primaries. It is time to give people a choice and a voice, especially in getting Americans out of Iraq and stop empire building...This appears to be the start of an uprising against the status quo Democrats who have unwilling to stand up to the Bush administration.
Thurston County Democratic chair John Cusick says that Crist is to be respected as a candidate, because "she really does walk the walk that she teaches." Meanwhile, Crist held her first press conference (photo below), is networking with Washington's Progressive Caucus, and she is up on MySpace and Facebook.
Which brings us to Emmett's question: Do the Democrats risk losing WA-03? Emmett again:
What I'm thinking right now is that before Baird, this was a district that elected Linda Smith. And, before that Jolene Unsoeld and Don Bonker held the seat. While Unsoeld could be considered fairly liberal, she did have some very strong guns rights beliefs that would put her in the libertarian wing. And, Don Bonker was Don Bonker, much like Baird is Baird.
Emmett is right that the district has never had strong progressive representation, except maybe for six years under Unsoeld. And it looks like the district is sharply divided, because WA-03 actually supported Bush over Kerry in 2004 50% to 48%
But those two facts don't entirely capture WA-03. Step back, and we see that during the last 48 years, WA-03 has only once sent a Republican to Congress (Linda Smith), and that occurred during the extremely aberrational Republican tidal wave year of 1994. And even then, Linda Smith was a relatively liberal Republican, and even she lasted just two terms. By contrast, in 2006, Baird won by a massive 63% to 37% -- and that was when it looked like Baird was against the war.
I think we have to conclude that WA-03 is extremely comfortable being represented by a Democrat. In an election that will likely see Democratic gains across the country, and an energized Democratic electorate, the odds that a Republican would take WA-03 are vanishingly small. Especially with no high-profile, experienced, or popular Republicans declared.
So purple is not likely to turn red. Instead, the question is WHICH kind of Democrat does WA-03 want?
Brian Baird has not had enough of this disastrous and bankrupting war, and he clings to his war support. Baird says things like:
I am convinced by the evidence that the situation has at long last begun to change substantially for the better,
even though the Myth of the Surge has been powerfully refuted, most recently by Nir Rosen in Rolling Stone. Baird thinks escalation is a good idea, and wants to keep funding the war at $3,845 per second. When our representatives start talking like that, as Kos said, we must vote in new representatives who completely understand that occupying Iraq is wrong, and the only way to get out of Iraq is to get out of Iraq. The people of WA-03 understand this, so there is a real possibility that Peace Activist Cheryl Crist could win.
If enough people pooh-pooh Crist's campaign, we might be able to ignore it to death, like the media did with John Edwards. But given what we know about Crist, Baird, and WA-03, there is no reason to do that. Progressives should embrace this campaign.
If you want better Democrats, here are two things to do. First, check out Cheryl Crist's other positions (e.g., health care, energy, climate change, fair trade, corporate power, women's rights, etc.) Second, small donations will make a big difference: Click Here to Go to Act Blue.
Previous: Ready to Go After Another Blue Dog?
This Diary: Is a Primary Challenge Too Risky?
Follow up: Is Baird Bad Enough to Warrant Replacing?
Follow up: Cheryl Crist is a Credible Candidate
Follow up: Fix FISA by Removing Baird
Follow up: Crist v. Baird Race Heats Up